• BABY BOOMERS, MAKE NO ASSUMPTIONS

Baby boomers are about to create a demographic shift that they and other stakeholders appear unprepared for. A whole generation is negotiating toward the threshold of retirement and its uncertainties, yet too many of its members appear primarily focused on reducing the impact on aging. They have made assumptions on the state of the long term financial health of their social security and medical care.

With the arrival of 2011, the first of the boomer generation will turn 65, qualifying for the potentially overwhelmed and underfinanced programs of Medicare, Medicaid and pensions. The lack of savings and preparedness by the baby boomers, and their government as well as the rest of society, suggest complete inattention to the affect that the coming shift will have on the collective social, political and economic fabric.

A current Presidential candidate potentially becoming the oldest person ever elected to the White House is not an accidental quirk of nature. The average North American born today is expected to be more productive for longer than any member of preceding generations and has a reasonable chance of becoming a centenarian. The population’s average age is increasing, and by 2020 it is expected that there will be 53 million people 65 years or older. The retirement and medical care programs were developed when average life spans were shorter, cost of living was much lower, and medical care expenses were cheaper, yet the system is committed. There is some good news however, as older people are healthier and have fewer disabilities somewhat reducing their dependence on medical care. There is an expectancy that boomers will head into retirement in better health than the previous generation. It remains that health care will become the heaviest burden weighing on the federal budget over the coming thirty years.

As boomers make their way through life in retirement, they will tap into the pension system that has represented the significant portion of national savings and investment funds which have historically provided fuel for the economy. There is an anticipated reversal of that trend to begin in the mid 2020’s. The capital base supporting boomers will begin shrinking, and the impact will affect both the retirees and the broader economy.

Baby boomers must make plans, as much as they can, to augment the financing of their retirements through the establishment of cash flow streams of their own creation. Boomers should not assume that current or future pension fund governance will work in their favor, or that market forces and direction will prove positive influence on their collective pension nest eggs. Boomers should prepare to make up possible shortfalls when bills arrive, whether for fixing leaky roofs, or purchasing prescribed drugs not covered by medical plans. They should also exert pressure on Congress, demanding that fiscal responsibility and oversight be assiduously applied to government spending, and that effective reforms be implemented to the health care system.

Boomers, whatever you are saving, increase it. Every dollar will count, but then, that’s not news.

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• POLYGAMY – HIDING IN THE SKIRT OF RELIGION

The conflict between church and state has long been a difficult element of contention, and is actually a debate between religion and the state. That somewhat opaque wall erected between political authorities, and adherents of particular religious beliefs has provided enough room for interpretation that some groups have found refuge in a well guarded gray void for over a century. The state has been restrained and shown little haste in its dispatch of legal process against endless cases of abuse against children. Why act now?

The confusion that arises over the government’s intrusion on religious practice is evident in the wake of the current conflict between the State of Texas and a group of polygamist Mormons. It is also in full display in British Columbia, Canada, where the Attorney General, Wally Opal, is not as lucky and has yet to receive a scream for help, as is the case with Texan authorities. Mr. Opal remains inhibited, lacking confidence that his court of appeals, or his Supreme Court will support him in these very lax, politically correct, and indulgent times, should he decide to lay charges. The man in his sights is Winston Blackmore, owner of three hundred acres he calls, Bountiful. Blackmore reportedly has fathered well over 100 children and by his own words appears to be a contender for the Warren Steed Jeff’s throne as leader of the Fundamentalist Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints.

By any other definition, polygamy is a male concept seeking mastery over women. Through polygamy men are in complete control of all facets of their women’s and children’s lives, including their bodies and their minds. The harm to both has been well documented and researched for over a century and has included abuse, coercion, constraint, violence, health problems, sale into marriage, and poverty.

Can governments exert authority over the individual’s conscience? If religion is a matter of belief, and is therefore protected by the first amendment, how do you adjudicate over polygamy which is a conduct supposedly directed and instructed by a religion? In an early unanimous decision on polygamy, U.S. Supreme Court Justice Field, in Davis vs. Beason in 1890 opined: "Bigamy and polygamy are crimes by the laws of all civilized and Christian countries. They are crimes by the laws of the United States, and they are crimes by the laws of Idaho. They tend to destroy the purity of the marriage relation, to disturb the peace of families, to degrade woman, and to debase man. Few crimes are more pernicious to the best interests of society, and receive more general or more deserved punishment. To extend exemption from punishment for such crimes would be to shock the moral judgment of the community. To call their advocacy a tenet of religion is to offend the common sense of mankind."

Subsequent decisions concluded that although laws cannot interfere with religious beliefs, laws could interfere with practices. The proximity of the two as pertains to polygamy blurs the distinction, and therein lies the hurdle that judicial systems have been almost totally unable to leap for prosecution. Polygamists have been so effective at controlling and manipulating their broods, that over the last hundred years very few children have escaped, and been able to describe their ordeals. In the world of polygamy, the administration of justice has been left to depend on the emergence of evidence of crimes from behind well guarded compound gates and the almost non-existent witness testimony. Proof is extremely difficult to come by, and corroboration virtually impossible.

The whole judicial system waits for a child, not only to be raped, but to then cry for help from beyond the walls. The childrens’ mothers won’t do it. The overwhelming challenge for authorities has been the ability to mount a legal case against any abuser. Polygamists have covered their tracks, including the records indicating the age of their wives at marriage. Two nations await effective outcomes in the Texas prosecutions, after which it is hoped, Mr. Opal will manifest some confidence in British Columbia and other prosecutors in Utah will feel empowered to take action, extinguishing the gross abuse endured by thousands of children and future mothers under the guise of religious freedom.

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• SUPERDELEGATES, INDEPENDENCE OF VOTE?

Democratic Superdelegates, with a pivotal Presidential election in their sights, are being hassled by opposing forces to commit for reasons becoming less evident by the day. With a bombardment of wide-ranging propositions germane to the triumph of the party, to the will of the majority, to a candidate’s overtures, or to the aspiration of the country, is it surprising that the confusion is conspicuous? The hard numbers have not yet provided an overwhelming winner, and the teetering balance may well resolve to the superdelegates for conclusion. Where should they seek adjudication on their upcoming consequential decisions above the interference of their cell phones?

Nancy Pelosi had sent a warning, stating that it would be a serious mistake for the Democratic Party if the superdelegates voted against the popular vote. Emerging from the leadership of a Democratic party within a Democracy, this is a particularly dissonant pronouncement. Ms. Pelosi’s motivation is less significant than the fact that she uses fear as a motivator. Is the credibility and future of the Democratic party left in the hands of the superdelegates, and directly commensurate with their upcoming votes? Not by any measure, nor should it be. Members of the electorate will consider the outcome from the aspect of their respective positions, whichever direction is taken by the superdelegates.

Some of the superdelegates are by definition unpledged delegates independent of primary and caucus results. They are supposed to be free to support any candidate they wish to be their party’s representative for the run to the White House. The acrimonious path the current Democratic race has taken between Clinton and Obama, should give rise to a commitment on conscientious and thoughtful decision making. Most delegates heading into the crowning convention will unfortunately not have much room to maneuver regardless what might surface from the candidates in the interim period.

In the creation of superdelegates, the senior party officials wanted to retain some influence over party direction independent of the electorate. Ms. Pelosi’s angst is that the role of the superdelegates, as was originally intended, might go against the slim majority, and in such a close race, could discharge dictatorial fumes. Whatever candidate their final vote supports, half of the Democrats will feel dissatisfied, disgruntled and some perhaps even angry. It remains that the superdelegates must be provided the maximum time and latitude for a final decision on who will run against John McCain. The outcome’s substantive impact on the American and global landscapes during the coming decade requires it. When making life changing decisions, do we not all wish for all possible instructive facts to surface? Do we not squeeze as much time as might be available, ergo the eleventh hour?

The ratio of pledged delegates for the two candidates in each State should have no bearing on the decisions of any of the superdelegates. Expecting otherwise renders them redundant, and should be a persuasive argument for the Democratic party to implement reforms to its process. The reality is that they exist. The other reality is that this is a democracy. In this election, the undeclared superdelegates should all have until the eleventh hour, even if this clock goes to the convention floor.

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• GE PROFITS DROP, NOW THE GOOD NEWS

General Electric is one of those bellwether companies whose size and breadth of markets provides a gauge, not only on the health of America’s economic engines, but on the world’s. The announcement of a year to year drop in profits was a surprise to enough GE investors that its shares retreated on Friday dropping the market capitalization by approximately $45 billion. It shouldn’t have been much of a surprise given the company’s profit performance has historically been so dependent on commercial financing operations. There it is nevertheless, forecasting a flat year, with the overall markets listening intently and adjusting themselves downward ever so sympathetically. Good news?

The adjustments we are witnessing through all indexes are actually a strong statement being made by consumers. American consumers are taking action, and the markets are attentively listening. Many experts claim that the index of consumer confidence dropping to a 26 year low is an indication that America has already entered a recession. Further foreboding signs on the road include the ever frightening potential of rising inflation, rising gas prices, rising food prices, and tightening job markets. If that isn’t enough prejudice on the future, watch out for the Euro, it augurs to overtake the USD as the preferred hard currency. So where along this road is the good news?

This whole road, starting with the consumer already tightening the belt is good news. This is the good news for the long term health of what is and will remain the most vital and vibrant economy in the world. The American consumer has taken control. That control starts at home, and is already visible with a tapering of the out-of-control spending by America that the world’s economy has been applauding for too long. This is the same consumer that most experts have considered incapable of demonstrating restraint in spending. The consumer is seeing the road ahead and is exhibiting caution. As the Federal Reserve slices interest rates further, American consumers are being diligent on where their precious incomes are deployed, and they are being apprehensive of further borrowing. That isn’t good news, that is great news. This is not consumer weakness, it is consumer strength. The U.S. economy will take a breather since consumer spending is 70% of the U.S. economy, and even if that lull takes a year or two, it will bode well for the long term recovery of the world’s most powerful economy and primary engine. It will also dampen the predicted levels of inflation. Of course the American consumer will continue to spend, but that spending will be tempered, and we will hopefully discover an increase in savings.

This is an attitude shift that will lead most consumers to continue considering each spending decision and its necessity very carefully. It might even lead to consideration being given to other impact or bounce that their spending might have in the broader context of their lives including their environment. That is a major alteration in American perspicacity that both Congress and the Administration will have no choice but to pay attention to. Consumers are carving a path their government will have to follow in kind. The pressure on the political system by the consumer will also lead to broad measures widely distributing opportunity through greater attention dedicated to education and enhancing its funding. Prospects for the future look bright. … And the Euro? America’s ingenuity and strength will maintain the dollar’s dominant position.

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• EXXON vs. CHAVEZ AND VENEZUELA

On America’s doorstep a battle is being fought between ExxonMobil, the world’s largest company by revenue, and Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez. The battle field includes the oil refinery in Chalmette, Louisiana, co-owned by Exxon and Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. (PdVSA). Chavez has decided that he wants to replace Exxon as the operator of the refinery. The circuitous route that brought Chavez so much influence over a Louisiana refinery provides evidence that while wide open trade has benefits, there exists ample justification for the implementation of rules and guidelines on agreements and deal structures pertaining to assets critical to the state.

Exxon is looking for compensation on losses incurred in the nationalization of its interests in a high-sulfur, heavy oil venture, called Petromonagas located in Venezuela’s Orinoco basin. The dispute is rooted in the wide spread between Exxon’s expectation of $5 billion in restitution, and PdVSA’s claim that $750 million is adequate. Exxon’s efforts to freeze Venezuelan assets were defeated recently in the U.K., and it is pursuing action in the Netherlands, although international support leans in favor the country rather than the corporation. Venezuela’s OPEC peers have a vested interest in not allowing Exxon to successfully set such a precedent, regardless what losses it is Exxon’s right to claim. Talk about a line being drawn in the sand, … (had to say it) this precedent will have broad consequences beyond the oil industry.

Venezuela’s stake in the Chalmette refinery was purchased through part of the deal that created Petromonagas. This was not a front-page-news, publicly-visible, congress-looking-in type of deal. Yet here we are witnessing a foreign power making decisions over another’s strategic assets and fairness isn’t in the cards regardless where it lies.

It cannot be assumed that foreign powers will make strategic investments in North American companies and not use those positions of control to impress influence in the future. Rules and regulations must be established on all foreign investments, or deals, directly affecting industries and companies considered of strategic national interests. Near the top of that list should be natural resources, which have historically been left on the road with the sign-post “open season.”

For trade relationships to meet with the approval of all countries and for harmony to prevail, rules should be balanced and apply to both sides of any transaction, regardless what border the contract crosses. These transaction should be within the purviews of federal jurisdictions, and the rules must be set and applied accordingly.

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