• OBAMA’S VICE PRESIDENT

As the coming weeks unfold, more ink will be spilt and talking heads will twitch on our screens, with expert opinion on the choice of Vice President for the political upstart making an unprecedented run at the White House. Obama has probably already heard every reason why choosing Hillary Clinton would bring nothing, other than discord, to his Presidency, and the coming days will provide the media’s experts ample time to bore voters with same refrain. The emotional bias against Hillary continues unabated.

Obama’s closest advisors, including his wife, will also join the chorus singing "anybody-but-Hillary". The only ones cheering for an Obama-Clinton ticket are the vast numbers of Hillary’s now despondent supporters. The rest are repeating tired comments such as her representing the antithesis of change and old style backroom politics. This simplistic analysis suggests that politics in America has now changed under Obama because he would never stoop to such retro and underhanded strategy. Somehow this also implies that the hundreds of millions he will have spent to get into the White House, were contributed by hordes of poor people dutifully mailing in their ten dollar donations. It also suggests that they were organized to do so or enticed by altruistic seekers of social and political change rather than calculating backroom powerbrokers manipulating a well oiled political machine.

While Obama’s ego settles into the event of his win, he should waste little time making his decision. That determination should favor Hillary Clinton, by far the most broadly supported, hardest working, and probably most knowledgeable addition to his ticket currently available to him. The wide support she has been able to attract from women voters alone should provide him enough substance for adding her to the ticket. It is also the most direct route to unifying the Democratic Party in one move. No other candidate could do that for him. Such a ticket would make McCain’s prospects of becoming the next President evaporate overnight.

One suspects, however, that the Vice Presidential position is not in Hillary’s best interest, and if she has not already turned it down she probably will. Her future looks brighter as an effective Senator, with her newly minted and invigorated public persona providing impetus to her legislative efforts. That will do, of course, until she gets a nod for the Supreme Court, … from Obama.

.... Read more!

• INEVITABLE HYPOCRISY OF POLITICS

Salvaging as much of her ego as she could this week, Hillary Clinton threw in the towel, almost, and made a speech supporting Barack Obama's candidacy for the Presidency. After long months of blood letting on the campaign trail, the two held a private meeting, intended to foster some ground rules to their supportive relationship. Obama needs Clinton and Clinton needs Obama. She now supports him. Why?

In her resignation/victory speech, Hillary Clinton does not say Obama will be a great President, or Commander in Chief of the armed forces, or lead the country out of the financial mess it’s in, or even that she knows he’ll reconstruct Washington into a diligent overseer of the taxpayer’s interests. She came out in support of the Democratic Party’s new leader. He would likely have done the same thing. Rationalization? All’s fair in politics. It shouldn’t be. If politicians, or most of us for that matter, really meant and believed our own presentations of ourselves, we would more often take a stand. Once Obama crossed the magic threshold for the win, if she really believed the aspersive and admonishing rhetoric with which she littered the campaign trail, Hillary should have thrown in the towel, wished him well, good health, a happy life, thanked her supporters, and gone home.

OK, so that’s a little extreme, but the point is that such action, although it should be the appropriate denouement, would not be personally expedient or financially beneficial for the Clinton family, nor for Hillary personally. So off she goes to help wage battle against McCain, because he’s from a different political party, and McCain can’t help her repay a massive campaign debt quite as well as Obama might. She is doing what everyone would expect of her - get behind her party’s new leader and his bid to win the White House. Funny how what’s expected has also become matter-of-factly anticipated, though under objective light, is hypocritical.

This is not a let’s-all-join-the-battle against an enemy because the country’s wellbeing is endangered, scenario. This is a race for the political power and influence of a particular candidate and that of his financial backers and power brokers. Through the campaign, Clinton was vilified for repackaging herself and returning to the ring to fight another round. Her promises and presentations fell fifty thousand votes short of a win, and now she fights for her own future political power and influence. Securing public office is a game of formulated promises and their effective presentation. Having failed in that effort, her ego now takes the necessary self-preserving action of hypocritically supporting someone she evidently has little respect for. Her career’s health demands it. The rest of us now await new promises.

.... Read more!

• POLITICS OF REACTION

Analysis of a constituency’s voting tendencies has created whole industries paying armies of experts who energize the political machines of organizations whether they are chasing control over local government or national office. National power shift in the White House over the past decade and a half has seen voters react against the sitting President rather than for a new candidate. The vacillation is seeing extreme fluctuation in the current race for the White House, even greater than previous elections. The analysis doesn’t need expensive experts.

Bill Clinton’s dalliance in the oval office was so broadly seen as having tarnished the sanctity of the White House and the Presidency, that its impact fuelled by both his political opponents and the media, stimulated powerful widespread reaction. A simple self serving act destroyed Bill Clinton’s effectiveness and all potential of what could have been a very significant Presidency under what could have arguably been the smartest person to have held the office. The balanced budget, the managed national debt, and the generally healthy economy, were not up for debate or consideration. Bill had been personally inappropriate.

In their reactive state, voters scampered for refuge in the decorum and devout religiosity presented by George Bush and his wife. Bush’s claim of being a bipartisan "uniter" fighting against big government was seen as a bonus but was a secondary consideration. The White House would be restored to its historical glory and returned to being the symbol of the inviolability of American forthrightness, respectability, leadership and power. Pride would be restored, and all stains expunged.

With little consideration for economics, and an evidently firm belief in debt, the Bush White House, with devout Congressional support, made dramatic and sweeping decisions that not only brought a cloud over the Presidency and its image, but braced a financial yoke on America that will take generations to unfasten and release. The White House now finds itself with a resident whose popularity has fallen to the lowest ever recorded for a President. American voters, now more concerned about income inequality, loss of purchasing power, social security, and a retrenched appetite for aggressive international policies, are reacting. They are again making a radical shift in the opposite direction akin to a heave of the pendulum even more dramatic than the momentum that elected George W. Bush.

The size of that oscillation has been evidenced in the turnouts for the Democratic primaries. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama effectively campaigned for representation of their party, energizing and pulling some record numbers well beyond anything the Republican party and John McCain could muster.

In the end, with messages of change, reconciliation and hope, Obama pulled significant numbers of particularly young voters which may well provide Democrats a long term allegiance if he delivers on his promises and Democrats capitalize on that support and build on the movement. Nothing in his background indicates that he is capable of delivering, but his message found resonance in a vast majority of an agitated and dissatisfied voting population. Again we are witnessing a radical voter reaction to a sitting President, which is now favoring a candidate presenting a position and attitude very antipathetic to that currently in power.

.... Read more!

• CONCERN FOR OBAMA’S DOWN TREND

The promotion of most senior executives to higher office rarely occurs without the individual having been tested by adverse conditions. While it is easy to look good when all winds are blowing in your favor, how one manages under pressure and stress as currents and squalls are applying opposing force, becomes a harbinger of future action and reaction. A relentless and indefatigable Hillary Clinton has tested Barack Obama's abilities under fire. In the final days of the Democratic race, Obama appeared to acquiesce, allowing Hillary to take the momentum advantage.

With Democratic voters almost evenly divided between the two candidates, one would have expected the marginal leader to come out with strong leadership statements on the most critical element of concern to the voters, the economy and foreign affairs. Sound-tough rants about NAFTA are not going to improve taxpayer concerns, nor are they demonstrations of any grasp of the real international trade factors impacting the U.S. The candidates should have become more familiar with the level of integration between America and Canada’s energy economies, as they pertain to oil, natural gas and hydroelectric power.

The shuttling of Democratic Superdelegates over to Obama has been energized more by “bringing an end to the race” than it has been a result of Obama leading a surge. Obama's evident reliance on Clinton’s inability to overcome her dislikability factor has not borne him well. Even if this particular race is over, the polls present disconcerting evidence for anyone anxious for a serious political shift in the White House and deliverance from policies of the past seven years. Obama needs to attract some support from a broader base than he has demonstrated the ability to achieve. He should ignore vengefully idiotic suggestions from the likes of Dick Morris, and he would be well advised to put the egos aside, and invite Hillary aboard as his running mate. With Clinton's support base, particularly in key constituencies and demographic groups, Obama would guarantee himself the White House. The race would be over. Suggestions of Bill’s meddling are vacuous. Bill is busy traveling the world making hundred million dollar deals with his friends, and would not be at the top of invitee list for participation in Obama cabinet meetings.

In a game where flat-lining is as bad as a down trend, Obama needs to convince the voting public that under stress, he can take up the flag and lead a charge with conviction on the most important elements facing the nation. He needs to also arm himself with more homework on economics and foreign affairs. A whole country is anxiously anticipating new leadership to reverse trends, economic and otherwise.

.... Read more!

• OIL PRICE BUBBLE - IS THAT A HISS WE HEAR?

The events surrounding the Enron fiasco and its lessons appear to have been forgotten by many of us, including Congress. Very intelligent, calculating minds had created complicated financial derivative structures, and cultivated massively leveraged speculation in pursuit of unregulated markets. The teachings, however, were very well understood by some who currently manage vast and rapidly growing pools of capital. Though we may feel very connected to our skyrocketing cost of driving our kids to school, the Enron trials of 2004 have morphed to a faded culpability attributed to reprehensible, greedy or corrupt individuals.

An important part of the resource speculation game is the management of effective PR. The length of the game and the extent of the proceeds, are directly proportional to the impact and manipulation of public consciousness. Contrary to what we have been fed by most media and self-styled experts, price of oil has not been driven by demand. The drop in demand by oil’s primary market, the U.S., or the drop in the dollar’s value does not explain the 100% price rise of the past year. It is also not consistent with Asian demand, which though increasing, is not surging, as claimed.

The idea floated in some media, that we are nudging Peak Oil, is a canard sent against the stream of a reality that includes the substantial new finds being discovered.

The excessive greed that has been driving oil prices went out of control, and consumers have made some serious behavior modifications that are impacting consumption. This change will continue to cut use of oil and suppress price increases. The economic slowdown across America, and the rest of the oil-consuming world, will accentuate that downward pressure on demand. Suppliers, enjoying a perfect storm of revenue, will continue to reduce their production to limit the speed of the bubble’s escaping gas, as supply continues to outpace the dropping demand, particularly from oil’s biggest market.

Congress faces a challenge in its search to understand what happened, as it questions the likes of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, (CFTC). We should not expect useful insight to be forthcoming. Oil moves and trades on the high seas in unknown quantities, and too much volume in oil futures speculation occurs offshore beyond prying eyes and oversight. Reports to and from Congress will be incomplete, and make examination and monitoring of the speculation intractable. Congress should lead the charge, and require that margin requirements be increased for commodities to that required on stocks.

Goldman Sachs recently predicted $150 to $200 per barrel prices for crude. Really? What is the purpose of this PR posit? It remains that it’s time to listen for the hissing sounds, which will be evidence of a leak in the bubble, and the eminent burst. Then $75 to $80 here we come.

.... Read more!