• Obama’s Not So Private Economic Conundrum

Having effectively been elected by a population believing in his redistribution of wealth promises, Obama has leaped into the fray of a game in which he has no experience. He arrived with an ideology, and seems to have learned little about the recession facing the Nation. Still he charges ahead. Along with millions of fawning supporters, Wall Street is quietly cheering and encouraging the moves of a neophyte CEO. You would too, if you controlled the game.

Many pundits and most of the mainstream media have intellectualized a rationality for the President’s actions with an unconvincing, “he’s a smart guy, he knows what he’s doing” or the very successful assignation, “the mess is Bush’s fault.” Others who once supported him now have stepped back a little with an abundance of “time will tell, give him some time,” brace-yourself sentiments. The American voters re-elected Bush to a rare second term, so this blames the voters, but more critically it is a disingenuous condemnation.

The anti-capitalism wave that swept the nation and elected Obama was a reaction to the financial sector’s abuse of influence and power. Within the reach of a compliant and not so watchful Congress, some players took absurd risks across the banking spectrum, breaking all rules of reasonable lending practices and leveraging. As Obama continues the out of control bailout of the financial services industry program Bush started, the problem America has faced for the past decade and continues to be saddled with, is the dearth of knowledge on the part of its President pertaining to its most critical challenge.

Any CEO who is perplexed when facing a balance sheet is incapable of effectively managing a large corporation, particularly one passing through a very turbulent and economically treacherous period. In such times, having in place an independent and objective Board of Directors is imperative, even if the CEO is aware. In the President’s case, Congress is expected to act as a balanced and diligent chamber, not an anesthetized rubber-stamping convocation. Both Republican and Democrats in Congress can take blame for having succumbed to the seduction of money, which led them to ignore the bubbles (housing and financial) that have imploded with worldwide ramifications. Congressionally mandated liberal (read: Standardless) mortgage qualifications, coupled with Greenspan’s loose money policies were the fuel that energized the bubbles. Bush was not responsible for the financial meltdown, and neither is Obama, although both can be accused of complacency. However, …

When the markets caved, Bush was in over his head facing challenges he did not understand, and he handed the hot potato to Paulson. Apparently Bush believed that a fox is the only one who has experience with chickens, and is therefore their inevitable overseer. It was evident that Bush had already vacated the White House premises mentally, and was running south for cover, hoping Obama would take over the reigns even before his time. In came Obama, with no more intimate knowledge, perhaps less, of the economic landscape and Wall Street than his predecessor. What did he do? Installed Paulson’s buddy and protégé of sorts to continue the good work of bailing out the financial community. Unfortunately for the taxpayers, Obama will continue to do whatever he is told to do.

At least Bush didn’t pretend he knew what he was doing. Obama’s ego on the other hand refuses to allow for such leak of doubt even in his private moments with the mirror. He is confident, and believes that he is intelligent, but the arrogance is leading him, and the Nation, overzealously into trouble. Problem is, the nation will pay for his ego and his lack of analysis or interest in educating himself.

As I’ve suggested previously he should shut the door of the Oval Office for a month, stay off Air Force One, and get a concentrated dose of education on the biggest challenges. He won’t. If America’s financial house is in order, every other challenge facing the country will be more easily remedied. It deserves his attention and intimate understanding of subtleties. A few phone calls will roundup all the teaching talent he can use. The objective is not to transform him into an economist. That would be just as disastrous. The goal it to get the CEO to become aware of what he doesn’t know, and get a grasp on some right questions to ask those that he has delegated authority to.

The U.S. Treasury and The Fed deserve his attention though they don’t want it. Who wants meddling when you’ve got yourself a key to the vault? They are happy to work with someone who doesn’t know enough to probe effectively with relevant examinations. They have been content for over a generation with residents of the White House who did not know what they didn’t know. Their jobs were made so much easier. Clinton might be the only President in recent memory who might have come close to being analytical and inquisitive. Have we so soon forgotten Allan Greenspan’s endless tenure and obscure meanderings who propelled the money markets over the edge? Why has Geithner’s failed role at the New York Fed garnered him ultimate power in the new Administration? Simple. His boss doesn’t know any different.

The occasionally heard rationalization, “we need those who brought us this mess to help clean it up,” is actually touted as if it made sense. … Not to American taxpayers, it doesn’t. With the bobbing head of the President, those who manipulated the fashioning of the worldwide recession are now tapping into the taxpayer pockets with schemes that will eventually surface, but to no avail. There will be no repercussions because there is no elected official who knows enough to dig, or has competence enough to conduct even superfluous due diligence.

When, for example, will taxpayers ever be apprized of the realities that will have allowed banks to market packaged toxic assets to funds, with the taxpayers, through the deft fingers of Geithner, guaranteeing the losses? ... The funds being pools of capital formed in partnership with Treasury where the taxpayer is fifty percent partner. Yes, you, the taxpayer will be a 50/50 partner, and that’s not good news because you are also the backstop on any losses incurred. Losses will represent much of the packages because we’re talking about mortgage loans that have been under water for some time and worse, these wondrous financial baskets include miasmal securities that were created by the geniuses running these now thrashed financial institutions. The outside independent fund “partners” have you to thank for their lack of risk. Don’t hold your breath waiting for transparency from Geithner. Geithner’s buddies will continue to be bailed, make billions, replenish their coffers, and taxpayers won’t know the hows, whens or whats. Ever. If you think you have a few bucks to invest, and want to get in on this action, good luck.

The big lie was that such radical measures were necessary if big lenders were ever going to lend again. Think about the absurdity of that statement. Your corner lemonade stand entrepreneur knows better than that. Oh, and the other sensible reason was that these giants of the financial world required their lost capital replenished. So, in go the taxpayers, threatened and squeezed into recapitalizing incompetent banks by overpaying for assets, … well, not assets so much as worthless toxic waste.

Thousands of banks across the country with solid financial statements could easily have been provided government backing to loosen some cash for loans, with deals and conditions pre-negotiated, etc., etc., etc., we could go on and on. The Geithners around him, by the way, could care less what Obama does with headaches like GM, Chrysler etc., so he plays pretend capitalist flexing his newfound CEO muscles, guided by an irresistible ideological need to change the rules of capitalism, another game far beyond his capacities and experience. He now seems to be an expert in the desires of the American public, which is apparently clamoring for electric automobiles, but is evidently doing it very silently.

The Administration’s bungling of the GM restructuring completely extinguished any possibilities of renegotiating the repressive union contracts that weighed heavily in the collapse of the auto industry. Obama’s support of unions, and his indulgence of their quid pro quo expectations will have detrimental effect on the taxpayer investment in GM. Obama is adding a whole new level of risk to investments – political risk. With GM and Chrysler as examples of overzealous government intrusion, and being very indicative of the overall climate in Washington, unionized companies and those encumbered with legacy liabilities, can expect to encounter serious difficulties raising capital in the foreseeable future. Unions have an important role to play in the economy, however, overstepping bounds of reason is detrimental to the “host.” The free market system needs oversight, however, Obama is taking the concept of oversight a little too personally, and his insinuation of government into the free market system is exceeding all constitutional expectations.

Meanwhile middle America awaits a positive outcome from its new President’s policies. It holds fervent hope that things will work out, and his wealth redistribution will magically trickle down to better jobs and higher incomes.

The money game and Wall Street are influenced by major players who never write tell-all books. There is no conspiracy, but there IS a game. Even Geithners are pawns in the game, but they play just the same. The vast independent pools of capital circling the globe, are directed by astute, quiet, effective and ruthless administrators. If you influenced the management of $500 billion and more, would you leave the investments to the vagaries and whims of markets? Would you risk the capital? Absolutely not. You would influence, and manage as much of the game as possible to achieve your objectives. You would do what you have to do to preserve capital first, and maximize returns second, to whatever extent possible, as would any mid sized, or small fund, or even minor investor.

As for Bushes and Obamas? They don’t know there is a game. Ideology is blinding, and with arrogance stirred in, the clustered aggregate, marketed and sold with masterful dexterity, will be detrimental to a whole nation’s economic well-being.

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• Detroit Icons - Ending More Than An Era

2009 is a year that will long be remembered by all automobile enthusiasts as the year they killed the American car. After over eight long decades, GM announced the closing of the Pontiac brand. More than an automobile era is closing. For many of us, this is an acknowledgement and confirmation that the transformation in a segment of our social landscape is now permanent.

There were many other closings of venerable marques over the years, such as Plymouth, or more recently Oldsmobile, that hit us as “little deaths.” The current economic devastation spilling bloodshed throughout the auto industry, however, is overwhelming the Detroit based manufacturers. The impact is making some of the dissolution irreversible. The names we grew up with, names that were very much present in the consciousness of our society and had meaning through multiple elements of North American culture, will no longer be components of corporate America. The future of the Big Three is now in serious doubt.

Vehicles such as the 1958 Pontiac Bonneville, the 1956 Ford Crown Victoria, the 1959 Cadillac Eldorado, the 1956 DeSoto Adventurer, the 1955 Chrysler C300, and the 1958 Chevrolet Impala were not simply transportation. They were the artful and complex product of creative teams, led by visionary designers who delivered “glory days” for their employers.

Europeans produced engineering marvels, but Detroit pushed vehicles into the artistic realm. If, for example, you analyze the taillights on vehicles from the ‘50s and ‘60s, their designers made them an integral and unique element of the rear decks. For European manufacturers, on the other hand, taillights were an afterthought. For most of them, it almost appeared as if they had forgotten that taillights were even required and the taillights had been added as the cars rolled off the assembly lines. Not so for the symbols of American knowhow and creativity.

Even the interiors were uniquely stylized, one more exotic than the next. Most importantly, Middle America could afford them. New or used, for a couple of generations, they represented stages and punctuations in one’s life or career. They were icons with vastly differing characteristics and complexions. For millions of us they represented dreams and aspirations, … “one day I’m going to own an Olds 442.” That the day did not always come wasn’t important, but dreaming of that Z28 Camaro, GTO or Barracuda was an enjoyable part of life for young and old.

The emotional component that automobiles of that era provided has not been replicated, and as poor management and careless unions destroyed the fabric of Detroit’s ingenuity, we watched the epoch extinguish itself from within.

The Oldsmobile Toronado, launched in the mid ‘60s when GM held 60% of the U.S. auto market, was a landmark technological wonder. Under one of the longest hoods on the road, the car’s 455 cubic-inch (7.5L) displacement Rocket V8 engines could smoke the enormous front wheels hurling the 5,000lb. vehicle down a quarter mile in under 17 seconds. The ’68 rendition, with hidden headlights and a front end the length of a Concord, is one of the great but underappreciated American automobiles. It punctuated the end of the sixties, and the fading of an automotive era, whose ending after four decades of denial can finally be put to rest in 2009.

We can rest confident and grateful that the tireless efforts of curators, aficionados, enthusiasts as well as hobbyists will continue to resuscitate, restore and preserve the art that has been the American automobile. Dare we dream of a resurgence?

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• Dilettantes At The Chrysler Gate

As Obama forces his personal views on the automotive landscape, his injection into the Chrysler debacle is evidence of the lengths he appears prepared to reach for morphing the Presidency into a willful bully-pulpit. Even the media is using words like “rogue group,” to describe the Chrysler creditors holding out for better treatment from the government.

Obama complained that the small “group of speculators,” rejected the government’s 33 cents on the dollar offer. Speculators? What a peculiar denigration of bankers who didn’t feed at the government bailout trough. This is a very serious misrepresentation of the reality surrounding the mess that has swirled around the government intervention into corporate America.

The “holdout group,” which included approximately 20 debt holders, claim they are being treated unfairly. No kidding. They have no seat at the negotiating table, and are required to be represented by recipients of taxpayer TARP money. Where is the common sense here? Why would the UAW and TARP fund receivers be more capable of representing the interests of the debt holders than they are themselves? These rogue investors, representing pension and retirement plans and school endowments, as well as teachers union, placed senior secured loans into the Chrysler coffers. Now Obama calls them “speculators,” as if the term is a dirty word that middle America and taxpayers should accept as such. Speculators are exactly what America’s business engines urgently need right now. Why disparage them?

This is simply misrepresentation and obfuscation floating from a White House seemingly unafraid of twisting perception of reality into support for a profoundly ideological agenda. The serious concern rests in the possibility that the government will corrupt the longstanding bankruptcy code that has stood the smooth functioning of the capitalist system very well. The bully pulpit in the hands of an effective salesman might well inflict permanent damage on the open and free corporate landscape which has fuelled America’s growth for over a century.

Those financial institutions who profited handsomely from taxpayer philanthropy which financed their bailout cash, distributed by the current and previous administrations, are understandably very solicitous of Obama’s demands. The White House accusing the holdouts of acting against the national interest, is injecting the government directly into the management and decision making process governing the funds. This is a pretense that the activity of bankruptcy is somehow unnatural and un-American.

Leaders of the rogue funds should continue to act and conduct themselves in line with what they believe are their fiduciary responsibilities on behalf of their investors, regardless what others in fear of the bully-pulpit might do to pacify the domineering harassment from the White House. The bankruptcy proceedings should be allowed to play themselves out legitimately under the rules and laws that have long proven effective and cleansing in corporate America, and the Administration novices should refrain from interference with management of corporate America and speculator fund management. America is a country of laws. Government should abide by them.

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• Cerberus Leveraging Billion Dollar Connections In Congress

It is agonizing to watch Congress publicly stumbling through its analysis and qualification of the auto industry, providing appearance that it is doing its homework on a bailout. Over 40% of Congress is made up of lawyers, with little grasp of finance, economics or business. Congress should not be negotiating the bailout.

Chrysler and Cerberus Capital Management are seeking an unholy bailout and Congress understandably struggles when Cerberus owned Chrysler CEO, Bob Nardelli, cannot explain why his bosses will not put up cash to bailout one of its many subsidiaries. Cerberus does not work that way, and it does not have to. Its political clout will do the heavy lifting on salvaging a failing investment.

Taxpayers won’t know any better since neither the current nor the incoming administrations will take oversight seriously and neither seems to understand Deal Structure. Unfortunately, neither will Congress which is simply lacking understanding of some critical components of business, wealth creation and negotiations. Certainly its actions suggest absence of such comprehension. American taxpayers have a particular interest in the outcome, and should be paying particular attention to the bailout, and to the Chrysler deal in particular.

In the shadows of enormous private equity investment firms lurk shareholders who remain anonymous, and who hire directors, senior staff and advisors who have political connections deep inside the private rooms of Washington decision makers (Congress & Administration), enriching the deals and enhancing ultimate financial returns. John Snow, the current Chairman of Cerberus and Bush’s former Secretary of the Treasury before Paulson, has apparently been earning his employer’s favor by lobbying directly, and through influential lobbyists at Treasury and elsewhere, for a Chrysler bailout.

The Cerberus investment of $7.4 billion in Chrysler is underwater. Their elimination of 30,000 jobs has not helped them or their former employees, so now Nardelli uses fear to energize congress into action. Most firms like Cerberus don’t acquire control of companies to turn them around, rebuild them and create wealth. They either acquire for position in an industry, then apply and leverage influence for strong ROI, or they pluck low lying fruit in the hope that political polishing and some finely tuned connections will enable a flip of the asset for a significant profit. Cerberus has for years had a nasty reputation on Wall Street as a fierce player and hard nosed negotiator, which is its right. Everything Congress is not. In this game of risk, connections and being ruthless make all the difference. In the Chrysler deal, these warm associations and substantial sphere of influence will bring access to taxpayer funds. Snow called his friend Paulson for the cash.

There may be media clamoring for transparency on the wealthy and secretive Cerberus, yet I feel this is an unwarranted forensic hunt for indeterminate ghosts. If Congress structured the deal properly, Cerberus and who owns it, how much it has, what companies it controls, all become irrelevant. Implementing a bailout program as delineated in this recent article on this post, would remove any Congressional concerns of the Cerberus share position, which would be drastically diluted to a minority in the event of any bailout cash injection. Unfettered, Cerberus could then slide back into the shadows, to await some future Congressional discomfort with its unnatural influence.

Should Chrysler take any money from the taxpayers, as it now appears it will, structure can be simple and effective as noted in the above referred-to article and “…take preferred share positions at the current market value for funds provided as and when the investments are made.” This, and other suggestions therein, such as clearing all Directors for the Boards, renders Cerberus shares inconsequential and provides taxpayer complete control over a company they will have funded, until all funds are repaid.

Congress, please pay attention. American taxpayers don’t need another blunder committed on their behalf.

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• A SOLUTION FOR DETROIT, GM, & FRIENDS

General Motors tells us it has plans for the long term. Long term plans are dreams. Unfortunately, GM’s horizon reality isn’t long enough for those plans and dreams to be realized. Pelosi and the Democratic leaders are urging Bush to provide more aid to the beleaguered auto industry. Congress bungled the specifics on the $700 billion bailout, and now it wants to extend the bungling to other areas of the economy, beyond the financial institutions. Panic is a dangerous condition, however, while it appears everyone is being conciliatory, or afraid to lose his or her job, there is an opportunity to take radical action. There exists a brief window of time when reconstruction can be enforced on a broken U.S. auto industry.

Here’s the fix:

Dear General Motors, Chrysler, Ford (yes, you too Ford, you’re in trouble, but just won’t admit it), and all suppliers and sub-contractors.

c.c.: UAW (pay attention because this is really going to affect you)

We, the ever hopeful Taxpayers, agree to come to your rescue, but feel it is time for some overhaul. We’ve been embarrassed for long enough. Over the past couple of decades most of your vehicles have looked like they were designed by committees ensconced in the shoebox concept of beauty. We don’t need to address all the other awkwardness, such as your failure to deliver reliability, while Toyota and Honda humbled even the German manufacturers. We are familiar with the rationalizations, and to some degree empathize with your being trapped in untenable labor relationships that have over the years stalled efficiencies. It is time to clear some decks in the management ranks as well as in the labor contract details. The now presents a perfect opportunity.

Please note that neither Congress nor Mr. Paulson will be negotiating the details on deals with each of your companies. Congress has demonstrated it cannot be trusted, and as for Mr. Paulson, we have been less than impressed with his ability to step back and act with objectivity, diligence or any sign of creativity and wisdom. How he became a billionaire is truly the extreme of the American dream waylaid on the road to fulfillment. Reaching dizzying heights of power and wealth with so little …, but enough of that for now. Here is the plan:

Each company will receive the same deal. All you have to do is throw up the white flag indicating that you can’t go it alone, and it becomes activated. There is no negotiation on the broad strokes. A bill will be passed, ensuring that all parties, including all employees, all executives, all Directors, and all related Unions, particularly the UAW, as well as all related contractors, sub-contractors and suppliers, abide by the terms since this will affect all of them very directly. We plan to end the excesses in the executive offices, and in the labor unions that have withered your companies.

We will take preferred share positions at the current market value for funds provided as and when the investments are made. Given the severity of the situation, the preferred shares will carry a dividend premium, we will settle for a total of 10%, and their buyback will also carry a 10% premium.

Considering the current share values, we will end up holding majority positions, which will sit in abeyance awaiting their return to your treasuries. We do not demand board representation, nor do we wish to dictate the agenda.

Since we are primarily interested in a long term success of your companies, we will not demand attached warrants on the preferreds, as other investors might be wont to do. We also recognize that adding to the overhang on the market would not be fruitful. We are not interested in promulgating evidence of greed here, just positive intentions for a significant industry we care to stimulate. Forget about going the loan guarantee route. We already have to borrow these funds, so enough borrowing already. We are anxious to get on with taking drastic action for the revival of your companies. We look forward to launching them into the twenty first century without too much surprise.

All employees, including management and officers, will take a full 25% cut in salary other than those recently hired for “non-core” jobs at $14 per hour or less. The salary cap will be $250,000 per annum, with no bonuses whatsoever. We are dealing with survival here, so whining that your personal overhead is higher than $250,000 will fall on deaf ears, and how can we say this with sensitivity, …you screwed up. Blame your egos for the extravagant lifestyles, and then move to a more moderate neighborhood. You’ll enjoy some peace of mind.

All employee agreements, unionized or executive, will be revisited. We realize that you compete in an international economy, and face competition that does not have the encumbrance of your labor history or your retired labor force. We will be reconsidering and renegotiating health care coverage as well as all 401(k) contribution programs, to bring them into line with the rest of work forces in America. While on the topic, we’re not getting with the program to shift the worker and retiree health care program responsibility from GM to the union, for example. That one smells, and workers will not get the better end of any such deal.

We will revisit the legislation that has governed labor relations, and become intrusive in the function of a prosperous enterprise. Unions abused their privileges, and executives abused their power, taking over-reaching compensation beyond common sense. Both exploited the system to selfish gain, almost killing the businesses. Executives went along with UAW coercion as long as their own incomes were skyrocketing. We are still shaking our heads at the 64% pay raise, Mr. Wagoner gave himself ’06-’07, while GM was hemorrhaging cash and it’s stock was crashing. While he was busy with his own bank account, GM was preoccupied with unproductive plant cutbacks to 80% instead of closing them altogether. The onerous position that carmakers have been subjected to by unions are no longer defendable or rational. Unions have also been taking care of their own senior executives, but their members are staring into the abyss. This will be changed. Oh, yes, and so will the “Jobs Bank” program or other arrangements such as paying “idled” workers almost all their take home pay plus benefits. You can expect us to rescind guarantees such as GM provided to keep all U.AW., U.S. factories operating.

The Board of Directors will experience an immediate restructuring so that we may implement much needed overhaul, and independence to the oversight process.

Accept this in a positive light which will stand you in good stead with the North American car buying public. Seeing some tightening of belts and constraint by unions and executives alike might endear your mobile armada to your primary market. We will not tell you how to run your business but folks, really, could you shrink the number of models? Too many of them look identical. GM, could we talk about your stake in GMAC? You’re supposed to be making cars, not financing homes. We’ll talk.

We would really like all three companies to demonstrate at least some of the vision their competitors have been actuating. We’re not talking about the kind of vision you used when you predicted a strong second half in 2008, but how about some vision on the future of the industry. This is just a “wishful” kind of thing on our parts, but we would be grateful if you could give room to the “vision” thing.

Few familiar with the auto industry would disagree that over-zealous unions have had obvious smothering impact on U.S. companies constraining their dexterity in fast changing markets. Without denigrating their significance to a labor force, we will do our utmost to ensure that common sense prevails in the relationship between unions and the auto industry. We are aware that labor isn’t the overwhelming cost factor, rendering you unprofitable, however, we are very familiar with what almost a century of accumulated bureaucratic strangulation from unions and government have done to your companies. We wish to remove all possible rationalizations and excuses on your road to recovery, and yearn to see it paved with ethical behavior.

Once your companies return to profitability, and our share positions are repurchased, your salaries will be revisited by new, and hopefully independent boards of directors.

We wish you much wisdom, foresight and plenty of good fortune. We also want our money back.

Sincerely.
The Taxpayers.

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