Tuesday, December 30, 2008

• Israel, Hamas, Lebanon – Here We Go Again. And Again.

Israel’s systematic and carefully targeted attack on Hamas militants has invited the usual response from the Arab world, and from Muslims generally. The following words from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, released through Iran’s news agency, embodies the essentials of a very old refrain.

"All true believers in the world of Islam and Palestinian fighters are duty-bound to defend the defenseless women and children in Gaza Strip and those giving their lives in carrying out such a divine duty are 'martyrs.' "

This official statement is burdened with detrimental intent from the Iranian leadership enthusiastically promoting discord in the Arab world. It sadly reflects a generally felt and ancient sentiment. This cynical stance accentuates the dearth of reprimand emanating from Arab leadership toward a callous treatment of its own, by its own.

Using the well-tried and successful Hezbollah strategy for waging war, Hamas inserts itself into communities populated with children, women and men. It then launches missiles into Israel, knowing that its launch sites will be easily detected by Israel’s technology. Hamas also knows that the deeper it has insinuated itself into Arab family communities, the higher the odds of civilian casualties during a retaliation. The higher the casualties, the higher the sympathy quotient for militant Islam, and unfortunately, the higher the support for Islamic radicalism.

On the Israeli side of the wall, leaders cannot retain power unless they are seen to decisively defend their people. The international PR machinery emanating out of this crisis, however, including expressions of disgust from the UN, will continue to work against Israel. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, “condemned the excessive use of force.” The current air assault from Israel tactical forces inevitably killed civilians. Even missiles with an accuracy of three meters to target, will unavoidably deliver death to bystanders and innocents when the intended targets are hiding in apartment buildings, mosques or schools. The media then becomes very preoccupied with reporting of rallies orchestrated around the world demonstrating opposition to the Israeli offensive.

This has been a sustained and caustic dance of death long contaminating the Middle East. Much of the world observes, but does not understand. It can’t. How can it make sense of a conflict that plays and replays, generation after generation, with the same players, same faces, different weapons? How can the world make sense of self-hating organizations being allowed to “lead” a society? Did anyone really expect that withdrawing thousands of Israeli settlers from Gaza would silence the rockets screaming into Israel?

From Denmark to Venezuela, the sanctimonious debate as to which side holds greater responsibility for the current cycle of death avoids the well-entrenched commitment in radical Islam to exterminate the state of Israel. The few Muslim voices declaring disapproval with Hamas’ ongoing break of the ceasefire accord find little harmony in the Islamic Arab community. Whether Israel is doing enough to allow Gaza’s economy to flourish, or whether it is shipping enough goods into the territory, giving Hamas justification for sporadic but endless rocket launches are simply minor subsets of the larger problem.

Most critical to any long term silencing of the rockets, would be reading and hearing loud pronouncements from the long silent voices of the vast majority of Arabs and their leaders. Their chorus should emphatically vocalize support for the existence of Israel. With such pressure on the extremists, the rest of the world would take the possibility of a Middle East peace seriously, and economic development would be on the horizon for Gaza and the Palestinians. Arabs in Gaza deserve some peace, and so do the people of Israel.

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Wednesday, December 24, 2008

• JOY and GRATITUDE

Best wishes for feelings of Joy and Gratitude to all readers from around the world who have joined me here this past year, and to billions more who haven’t yet. I have enjoyed the exploration and the education in this journey. And no matter what time of year, internally or externally, a smile is always infectious. … ☺

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Tuesday, December 23, 2008

• A New And Different Shattering Of Assumptions

You have done your share. You work exhausting hours, sometimes at two jobs, and you have succeeded by any definition in fashioning a good life for yourself and your family. You accepted that while you were taking care of your part, others, some perhaps with more knowledge, power, influence and wealth, were taking care of theirs. Good for you, and well, … not so much.

Assumptions are a foundation of society’s functioning processes. As you travel at 55 miles an hour down a busy highway, you assume. You assume your automobile’s wheels will not suddenly part ways and decide to retire in a roadside ditch. You assume others driving in the opposite direction will continue enjoyment of life long enough to pass by your left window at a relative 110 miles an hour, with no sudden change of heart that might cause your abrupt transition into a hood ornament.

You assume that those you have elected to office will ardently carry their impassioned campaign trail promises to Washington or The White House. You assume that all knowing sages who have been given the keys to the National Safe will be diligent in the management of its contents. You assume that the Harvard educated captains of industry will manage the corporate world in testament to their prodigious capacities. You assume that others must have special insights far exceeding your own on the big picture.

We all assume. We have to. The faculties of human endeavor expect it. Without assumptions, the evolving ritual dances of the social, political and other conventions would disjunct into paralysis. Our behavior holds certain expectations of its ambience. In the event that those expectations are violated, we have enacted laws that will impose a collective retribution.

Current economic, political, corporate and social events are shattering our assumptions with impudent and invasive intrusion into the core of our lives. Our centers of gravity are undergoing some dislocation somewhat similar to that experienced three generations back during the Great Depression. The global interconnection and interdependence allows for a more pervasive impact on the earth’s population by the current version of high anxiety.

Do you remember the day when that parent you thought archaic told you, “Things are rarely as they seem?” This assertion pertained to perceptions. You were convinced that government bailouts were foreign concepts too far down the politically impossible spectrum to warrant serious thought. Now you listen to unwavering shouts from experts telling you that bailing out banks and financial institutions is not only good for you, it is mandatory for your future well-being and peace of mind.

Will the best-connected voices, the CEOs cap-in-hand, be the most rewarded in the bailout line-up? The taxpayer will continue to borrow trillions of dollars to enable these bailouts of Wall Street, and it will be left to our children and grandchildren to figure out how these debts will be repaid. Can’t we just assume that they will? That would be easier. The dogmatic nudging of our perceptions is disquieting. We are perhaps observing, and financing, the dawning of a new capitalistic system and a metamorphosis of the corporate entity.

Surely somebody knows what he or she is doing. The assumptions return. This new Obama administration with its dozens of experts must know something we don’t. It will make things better with a stimulus package on top of the bailout packages. This stimulus package will be the biggest in history, setting new incomprehensible levels of national debt. Shall we assume once again that for that singular reason, this package will work?

The cycles of our presence on this Earth are not all within our control, and these times are an experience along our journey for which our spirits will draw a learning. New assumptions will advance on our percepts, reframing our outlooks and expectations, and your parent was right, things will rarely ever be quite as they seem.

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Saturday, December 20, 2008

• Bernanke And The Perpetuating Credit Card Swindle

Banks, and whomever else we blissfully accepted a credit card from, have been charging us, all of us, grossly usurious fees. Even those diligent observers faithfully sending off payments before they were due, have long been abused by capricious credit card issuers.

When the Head of The Fed, Ben Bernanke, gets involved because Congress has been asleep, you know the pressure of discontent from tens of millions of Americans is building beyond a sustainable level of annoyance. Ben Bernanke's comment that the rules, “will establish a new baseline for fairness,” is so fraught with meaning one doesn’t know where to begin its appreciation, … well almost.

This is what he might be saying, “We have been exhorting so much out of your pockets for so long through slight of hand, guilt, ... no, make that fear, that we are led to enact a few rules that will do nothing for you. If we present these new rules with enough jaw-dropping appearance of boldness and empathy for your well-being, you will remain oblivious to the vulgarity with which you have been and will continue to be fouled.

“Don’t get yourselves in a knot over this one-half-of-one-percent-rate thing on the sub-slime, I mean sub-prime interest rate the Fed charges its friends, and quit wondering why you can’t get in on that good stuff. It doesn’t concern you, and has nothing to do with you. Never has, never will. That rate has no correlation to the 14% to 36% interest you pay on your credit cards. Such rates are because you are all really terrible at keeping your books in order, and making all your debt payments on time. If you knew what you were doing, you’d never agree to pay such insane rates. You are so oblivious, you could be getting better rates on your street corner. Idiots. Oh, sorry. I didn’t mean that, although, why are there almost three quarters of a trillion credits cards holding a trillion dollars in debt when there are only 300 million men, women and children in this wonderful country of ours? And, NO, I will not go into an explanation of why our friends, the banks, get almost no interest charged on money we lend them, while their credit stinks, and you have to bail them out. It is much too Byzantine a system to be explained. Even my bosses have no clue.

“Ladies and gentlemen the rules regulating credit are complex, though a little feudal. You’ve understood all along that we, umm, I mean the banks and credit card issuers, could set interest rates and fees at whatever levels they wished. Why so much surprise? We are nevertheless pleased to announce that we will reduce re-pricing, a little, well, we won’t reduce it but we want you to be notified when it will happen. Will we check if lenders tell you ahead of time? No. Will you? Not much, no. We are absolutely certain most of you never pay attention to notices or fine print. How many of you can tell me, right now, how much interest you pay on those ubiquitous and so colorful pieces of plastic? … Clueless.

"Let me make something perfectly clear. We do not owe you debt. Debt is not your right. It is a privilege. You should be grateful we even allow you to borrow from us to lever your lavish lifestyles against your future incomes. Right now we’re not so comfortable with your prospects for continuing those incomes, so we are simply making some adjustments. Tweaking the system a little. We also don’t need to see any demonstration parades coming down Avenue of The Americas whining about how you’re hard-done-by, or chanting ‘ban the fed’ or shaking signs with ‘help we’re broke.’

"We are gleefully aware of your lack of familiarity with the term, Saving. It is a term in the English language that refers to economizing or conserving money for the future. Who do you think keeps count? I do. Why? Because tracking details of your habits with microscopic attention enables us to accurately time adjustments in the system. I don’t mean adjustment in prime rates, I mean the establishment of regulations that will instill in your minds an impression of our all-knowing prescriptions for everything financial that ails you.

"This is why we will allow companies to raise interest rates only on new cards and purchases, not on existing balances. I know that you think the interest on the old stuff’s already been jacked through the roof, so what difference can this possibly make? True, but when you add to this the restriction on allocation of payments to account balances with lower interest rates, and reducing cross-card-credit-contamination, now we’re talking vast implications on the credit system. Huge. This is big for you guys. Really. Well, maybe. Hey, we’re doing the best we can here at the Fed, and things are tough everywhere. No one wants to give an inch. That is why we won’t be putting caps on interest rate levels charged by card issuers. Sorry. Oh, and by the way, because we just cannot upset our friends, these new rules will not go into effect for at least a year and half. You know how things are. Congress is so laborious. Each one of those crapulous crackpots wants a piece of the pie before agreeing to anything. They think pork-barreling is their right, … things like that.

“In conclusion, I know deep down in my heart that all of you feel a very strong and emotional commitment to repaying your obligations. We are thrilled to know that you will be making your payments on time and that you will atone for your sins, … umm, that you will extinguish your debt, the principal and the interest. Every penny. Particularly the interest. Yes, make sure you repay the interest. Perhaps I shouldn’t harp on the principal so much.

“We will lend you more as you need it, and the presses, the paper, the ink are churning 24/7 to keep up. Now I must go have lunch with your new leader and explain what I’m doing, again. I wish these guys would just leave me alone, their eyes just glaze over when I talk to them. Merry Christmas, and happy spending. It’s good for the economy.”

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Tuesday, December 16, 2008

• Is Madoff Really A Wall Street Anomaly?

As if the negative news of the past month was not enough to rattle the constitutions of the hardiest bank accounts, a new face has appeared to erase Paulson’s from principal and front-page news coverage. The new face of Wall Street’s meltdown is Bernard Madoff, a well-respected, elusive, disarming, egocentric, and now arrested, financial service executive. Is he really such an anomaly?

Individuals, banks and fund managers of brokerage, hedge, trust, private, non-profit or other capital pools, who made sumptuous donations to Madoff’s coffers are making the headlines for having invested in the genius of 1% to 1.5% monthly returns. Over the coming days and months names will continue to emerge, and so will the dearth of ethics. It is inevitable that some of the nastiness permeating the penumbral netherworlds of investment banking will force the hands of authorities that have ignored many of the egregious abuses of fiduciary responsibilities entrusted in positions of influence and power over money. Wealth destruction of such magnitude required servility and assent from a synchronous multitude.

In the Madoff fiasco, the range of investors already finding light of day includes for example Banco Santander based in Spain with a reported $3.1 billion exposure, and Britain’s Man Group with only $360 million in potential losses. Individual fund managers and financial advisors to the wealthy will also be exposed. For some individuals the nature of the exposure may be more than simply having lost staggering amounts due to their inappropriate allocation of capital to an alleged ponzi scheme.

We may be bestowed the first significant opening to a flood of exposure into the imposture and pilferage that has been too pervasive in the investment and banking industries for a century. It is an industry that has been protected with almost ecumenical solemnity by regulatory agencies and media. Regulators might not be up for it and MSM may be too distant from privacies of collusion. Nevertheless, the doors of the cloisters shrouding indefensible vulnerabilities may open a crack. Perhaps we will be granted insight to a whole range of shamelessly aberrant possibilities that the financial world and its regulators would rather leave undisturbed like a stagnant toxic reservoir.

At the less pernicious end of the seductive a cappella temptations of ripened greed are those who suspected that Madoff was doing something off the main line to deliver such absurdly consistent returns. As is often the case on schemes too good to be true, these investors didn’t really want to know. They invested anyway. Smaller fish begged Madoff to accept their capital for investment, but many were likely directed there by their own financial consultants who received some form of compensation from the virulent fund. This is not to suggest that the whole system is corrupt, however, a considerable portion in the financial consulting and capital management business, have forever acceded to beguilement and dipped their buckets into both sides of an investment transaction.

Nearer the apex of the pecking order are market savvy managers of large capital pools who accost both sides of financial transactions in monastic secrecy and with ascetic prudence. The nature of their game can get complex, and presents a kaleidoscope of diversity. While overseeing funds or pools owned by others worth tens, even hundreds of billions, they manage their own private smaller but nevertheless sizable funds. One can scale down numbers applied to the graft, however the same ceremonial congruity applies. Regardless what long, short or other more eclectic bet is made from the large fund under management, the smaller private fund can be insinuated into the safe side of the transaction between the bid and ask, for example. The smaller private million-dollar insertion will be guaranteed warmth by the bigger trades on behalf of the larger managed funds. Execution can avert prying eyes with or without broker or market maker accommodation, utilizing Byzantine devices such as well nested off shore accounts, although many operate subtly but in full view.

The investment game is prodigally encumbered with inducement for manipulation or corruption, imploring those weak of fortitude, morals and principals to abide to discrepant customs. When managing “someone else’s money” it is too easy to take a piece over and above the agreed-to fees. Rationalizations abound sanitizing the egos of corrupt investment bankers convinced they are the requisite Eustachian tubes of the investment world. Attempt to calculate odds of graft in this industry would accelerate the most complex algorithms into catharsis. We are treated to many great lies, such as “the market never lies,” or “insider trading is illegal,” meant to administer salve to the flock, or anaesthetize the unsuspecting.

What self-respecting investor, broker, market maker, fund manager or general purveyor of financial clout would make an investment without “inside” information? Martha Stewart was jailed for a minor incarnation of that infraction. Occasional immolations are inevitably imposed for the industry’s aesthetics to maintain consecration. Madoff is no recent proselyte to the game, having founded his firm in 1960 and having served as Chairman of NASDAQ, his breadth of experience should deliver unusual enlightenment into the darker corners of his industry during these times of bailouts and deficits. It will then be up to Congress to act on reducing the odds of seduction.

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